Saturday, July 12, 2014

Dynasty Stock Watch-Francisco Lindor

Dynasty Stock Watch-Francisco Lindor
by Matt 

In the world of dynasty fantasy baseball; it's very important to a "franchise" to roster top fantasy baseball prospects that will contribute over the long haul. One area where fantasy owners commonly mis-step is when researching top prospect lists, and correlating real-world baseball value; to fantasy baseball value.

When seeking fantasy prospects that will provide significant fantasy value; owners need to be wary of who provides more value in the "real-world" than in the fantasy world. Those owners seeking a competitive edge in the future would be wise to take this information to the bank when seeking trades with other owners.

Francisco Lindor, #6 on Baseball Prospectus' 2014 MLB prospect list, SS, with the Cleveland Indians organization; is one such hitter, whose "real-world" value is significantly different than his dynasty fantasy league value. Lindor's has elite potential as a defender at the SS position, but doesn't project to be a top offensive threat like other top prospects, as seen by his 33rd overall ranking on Baseball Prospectus's top fantasy prospects for 2014 list (compare that to his #6 spot on top prospects list).

Lindor projects as a hitter than can provide steal totals around 20-30 in the MLB and should definitely contribute to your SB totals (provided you play in a Roto league). More of a gap-to-gap, slap hitter, than slugger, Lindor should hit somewhere between .255-.270 at the major league level with mild to moderate power.

I expect Lindor to be a .260 Hitter that will provide 8-12 HRs and 25 SBs once he gets comfortable at a major league level. I'd comfortably place his ceiling around the level Elvis Andrus with a slight edge on power (at the time of this writing, hitting .265, 19 SBs and 2 HRs). While this is definitely a fantasy commodity worth owning, this is not the type of "core" player that will provide the return that most fantasy owners seek in top prospects.

While theres definite value to be had from a stolen base threat like Lindor, don't mistake his lofty prospect status for fantasy value. As a top prospect with name brand value, you should be able to trade Lindor's prior to his MLB promotion.

This writer urges owners to leverage Lindor's top prospect status & name recognition; to trade for other infield prospects with higher offensive ceilings and long-term fantasy value such as: Addison Russell, Carlos Correa, or Kris Bryant.

by Matt Lepselter
-You can follow Matt on Twitter @mlepselter

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